THUNDER

THUNDER

THUNDER is in the Air Force Standard Analysis Toolkit (AFSAT) suite of models and is a two-sided, theater-level campaign simulation.  It has an extensive representation of air, land, and naval systems combined in a joint environment and simulates realistic geographic, environmental, and meteorological conditions.  THUNDER provides analysts a tool to gain insights into the full range of potential outcomes of a military campaign and in turn provide decision-makers with quantitatively based results for various alternatives and course of actions.  It is a stochastic data-driven model that supports Monte Carlo simulation and statistical inference.  Scenarios, force structure, terrain, and weapon systems are described in input data.  Significant elements and effectiveness data, including surface-to-air, air-to-air, and air-to-ground methodologies, are developed using an Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC) Combat Effectiveness & Vulnerability Analysis Branch (EZJA) pedigree process that incorporates calibrated lower-level results obtained using other AFSAT models (e.g., ESAMS, SUPPRESSOR, and BRAWLER).  THUNDER’s ground war combat results were derived from deterministic play of Center for Army Analysis (CAA)-supplied data using the attrition calibration (ATCAL) process.

THUNDER’s primary objective is to support senior decision-makers in the policy, acquisition, and operational communities when they consider issues involving the utility and effectiveness of air and space power in a joint warfighting context.  Support for these customers usually requires a high degree of responsiveness in terms of analytical focus and turn-around time for results.  AFLCMC/EZJA is the model manger and performs model development and maintenance.  Thunder has an established Configuration Control Board (CCB) to approve model development activities.

THUNDER enables users to:

• Analyze the capabilities and impact of air and space systems operating in a joint battle space involving U.S., allied, and threat forces and their relative contributions to theater-level outcomes.
• Explore issues of readiness, modernization, force structure, and sustainability.
• Compare alternative courses of action.
• Provide insights into future military strategies and evolving operational concepts.

Acceptance Level:

• Very high.  THUNDER is the Air Force’s most used theater-level analytical campaign simulation for analyses of alternatives (AoAs) and other acquisition studies.